12.1 For the market share model in Problem 5 of Chapter 11, suppose that the estimate of the percentage of new purchasers who will ultimately try the brand is uncertain and assumed to be normally distributed with a mean of 35% and a standard deviation of 4%. Use the NORM.INV function and a one-way data table to conduct a Monte Carlo simulation with 25 trials to find the distribution of the long-run market share.
See Problem 5 of Chapter 11
11.5 A company is trying to predict the long-run market share of a new men’s deodorant.8 Based on initial marketing studies, they believe that 35% of new purchasers in this market will ultimately try this brand. They believe that customers will purchase their brand about 60% of the time in the future. Preliminary data also suggest that the brand will attract heavier-than-average buyers, such as those who exercise frequently and participate in sports, and that they will purchase about 20% more than the average buyer. 8 Based on an example of the Parfitt-Collins model in Gary L. Lilien, Philip Kotler, and K. Sridhar Moorthy, Marketing Models (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1992): 483. Calculate the long-run market share that the company can anticipate under these assumptions. Develop a general model for predicting long-run market share.